Spatial synchrony among populations of walleye in the Great Lakes and the influence of climate on recruitment.
Samantha Fedor, M.S., Roy A. Stein, and Elizabeth A. Marschall. Funded by: Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Wildlife, Federal Aid in Sport Fish Restoration.

Current concerns about the repercussions of global climate change have stimulated efforts to understand how changing abiotic conditions influence natural populations. Walleye (Sander vitreus) populations have shown marked annual variability that can not be predicted by the size of the spawning population. Previous research has associated this variability with environmental factors such as spring warming rate, river discharge, and storm frequency and intensity. Frequently, however, the predictability of models developed from these studies falters as new data points are added and previous relationships are weakened. Relationships between recruitment and abiotic variables may disintegrate because of the interaction between local and large-scale variables that may not be detected in short time series but become more apparent when many more years are added. However, by comparing multiple populations within a region, the effects of large-scale variables and local variables should be possible to distinguish, with years of co-variation representing years in which climate (or other large-scale factors) is influencing recruitment.

This project seeks to clarify the role of climate in walleye recruitment by 1) comparing and quantifying co-variation of year-class strength for four walleye populations within the Great Lakes region, 2) using large-scale (e.g. El Nino) and known small-scale determinants of recruitment (e.g. Spring warming rate) to investigate mechanisms driving co-variation within the Great Lakes, and 3) using the results of these analyses to forecast the effects of global climate change on walleye recruitment in the Great Lakes.

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Samantha Fedor can be emailed at fedor.5 "at" osu.edu